Poll: Adrian Fenty (Or Anthony Williams) Would Beat Vince Gray

Poll: Adrian Fenty (Or Anthony Williams) Would Beat Vince Gray
Posted by Mike Madden on Dec. 22, 2011 at 12:01 am, Washington City Paper

`The last time D.C. heard from Adrian Fenty in an official capacity, he was finishing 37th in the "elite male" category at the D.C. Triathlon in June. (Which, come to think of it, is more or less what he was up to for much of his term as mayor.) If a new poll by Clarus Research Group is right, though, Fenty nostalgia is in full swing in the District.

The poll, released Thursday, showed Fenty would beat Mayor Vince Gray easily if a rematch of their 2010 primary was held now; Fenty, who lost his bid for a nomination for another term by 53 percent to 46 percent, would beat Gray 48-33 among Democratic primary voters today. (Among all voters, which includes Republicans and independents, Fenty would win 51-30.) The racial dynamic that ran through last year’s election, though, persists: Gray would beat Fenty 45-31 among black voters, while Fenty would win 82-10 among whites.

But Fenty doesn’t actually seem interested in running again. "I’m not sure if personally I would have gotten more out of" winning another term, he told the Huffington Post in September. Which is why another question the Clarus Group asked was even more interesting.

Former Mayor Anthony Williams, whose name does occasionally come up as a potential candidate to return to office, would also beat Gray, by a 47-32 margin among Democrats, the poll found. Like Fenty, Williams is more popular among white voters than black voters; unlike Fenty, Williams’ hypothetical lead doesn’t increase quite as much if Republicans get rolled into the sample.

The bottom line in the survey’s findings, though, isn’t really news: Incumbent politicians in D.C. these days aren’t very popular.

The poll found Gray’s approval rating among Democrats was only 34 percent, which is actually up from the 31 percent he recorded in a March Clarus poll. But 53 percent of Democrats disapproved of Gray’s job performance, compared to 30 percent in March. At 48 percent, a plurality, but not a majority, of black voters—Gray’s base—approved of his job performance.

“The mayor has never defined his mayoralty,” said Clarus president Ron Faucheux. “News stories about cronyism and criminal investigations have framed his first year in office. His ratings, and those of the [D.C. Council], are suffering from a cloud of uneasiness that hangs over city politics.”

Only 30 percent of voters approved of the D.C. Council’s job performance, with 55 percent disapproving. Council Chairman Kwame "Fully Loaded" Brown, meanwhile, the worst poll numbers of any politician the survey asked about, with 26 percent approving and 57 percent disapproving.

The poll was taken Dec. 19-21 and sampled 500 self-identified registered voters. The margin of error was plus/minus 4.4 percent.

Complete ratings for a variety of local politicians are after the jump:

Mayor Vince Gray

  • Approve: 34
  • Disapprove: 53
  • No Opinion/Don’t Know: 13

D.C. Council

  • Approve: 30
  • Disapprove: 55
  • No Opinion/Don’t Know: 16

Council Chairman Kwame Brown

  • Approve: 23
  • Disapprove: 57
  • No Opinion/Don’t Know: 20

At-Large Councilmember David Catania

  • Approve: 37
  • Disapprove: 16
  • No Opinion/Don’t Know: 47

At-Large Councilmember Michael A. Brown

  • Approve: 26
  • Disapprove: 27
  • No Opinion/Don’t Know: 47

At-Large Councilmember Vincent Orange

  • Approve: 35
  • Disapprove: 27
  • No Opinion/Don’t Know: 38

At-Large Councilmember Phil Mendelson

  • Approve: 44
  • Disapprove: 13
  • No Opinion/Don’t Know: 43

Metropolitan Police Department Chief Cathy Lanier

  • Approve: 78
  • Disapprove: 12
  • No Opinion/Don’t Know: 10

D.C. Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton

  • Approve: 77
  • Disapprove: 15
  • No Opinion/Don’t Know: 9

DCPS Chancellor Kaya Henderson

  • Approve: 51
  • Disapprove: 14

No Opinion/Don’t Know: 35

Kevin Wrege, Esq.

Founder & President

Pulse Issues & Advocacy LLC

Office: 202-625-1787

Mobile: 202-253-4929

4410 Massachusetts Ave., NW, #150

Washington, DC 20016

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